Risk Assessment and Management in Pharmaceutical Organizations Based on the Modified Argenti Model

Pharmaceutical organizations operate in conditions of high uncertainty driven by changes in the regulatory framework, economic instability, and increasing competition in the pharmaceutical market. Under these conditions, effective risk management is a key factor in ensuring the sustainable development of pharmaceutical organizations. The aim of this study was to develop and scientifically substantiate a risk management system in pharmaceutical organizations based on an adapted Argenti model. The research materials included financial and operational data of pharmacy organizations as well as the results of a sociological survey conducted among pharmacy managers in Shymkent. The study employed sociological analysis, economic–mathematical modeling, statistical analysis, and expert evaluation methods. From an economic perspective, risk is defined as the probability of an event that may or may not occur and, if realized, leads to specific economic consequences. These consequences may be negative (losses, reduced profitability, decreased financial stability) or positive (additional gains, increased returns, expansion of market share). Modern economic literature lacks a unified approach to defining risk due to its multidimensional and interdisciplinary nature. Depending on the origin and sphere of manifestation, the following types of risks are distinguished: financial, credit, liquidity, investment, operational, managerial, market, competitive, legal, regulatory, logistical, inflationary, and strategic risks. Pharmaceutical organizations are exposed to multiple categories of risks simultaneously. Financial risks include insufficient working capital, declining profitability, and an increasing debt burden. Regulatory risks arise from changes in legislation, government price controls, and the implementation of good practice standards (GDP, GMP). Market and competitive risks are manifested through increased competition and fluctuations in demand for medicines. Operational risks include inventory management, accounts receivable, and logistics processes. Thus, pharmaceutical organizations operate in a complex and multi-component risk environment. In this context, the primary task of management is not to eliminate risk as an economic category, but to ensure its systematic identification, quantitative assessment, and minimization. An effective risk management system, grounded in rational strategic management and the application of economic and marketing analysis methods, enables transforming risk from a destabilizing factor into a controllable element of organizational development.