Violent Conflict and Discretionary Consumption: Evidence from the Restaurant Sector in Manipur, India

Violent conflict disrupts economic activity, alters household income, and reshapes everyday consumption behaviour. This study examines the impact of the 2023 Manipur violence on eating-out behaviour among restaurant consumers in a conflict-affected setting. The analysis focuses on four key conflict-related factors: income status, mobility restrictions, purchase-choice limitations, and stressful environment, and evaluates their influence on changes in the frequency of restaurant visits. Using primary survey data collected from 161 respondents across selected restaurants in the valley region, the study employs a logistic regression framework to estimate the relationship between these factors and consumer behaviour while controlling for demographic characteristics and prior eating-out habits. The results indicate that income decline, mental stress, and disruptions in online delivery services significantly affect consumption behaviour. Perceived insecurity also plays a stronger role than mobility restrictions such as curfews. In addition, prior eating-out habits emerge as a key determinant, suggesting that established consumption routines are particularly vulnerable to disruption during conflict. The findings provide micro-level evidence on how violent conflict influences discretionary consumption through economic, behavioural, and technological channels. The study contributes to the literature by highlighting the vulnerability of emerging service sectors in conflict-affected regions and underscores the importance of restoring stability, mobility, and consumer confidence for post-conflict economic recovery.