Anatomy of a Disaster: Unraveling the Economic and Social Consequences of Natural Disasters in Latin America

This paper uses monthly district-level data to analyze the economic and social consequences of natural disasters in Latin America. The identification strategy exploits spatial and temporal variation in disaster occurrence through an event study design. The findings show that natural disasters substantially reduce economic activity during the first month following the event, with heterogeneous effects. Hydrological disasters have immediate impacts, while meteorological and climatological disasters show lagged effects. Small districts are particularly vulnerable, exhibiting decreases in economic activity that persist for up to 4 months. In the social dimension, disasters increase protest frequency by 69%, although no changes in the use of public force are observed. These findings suggest the need to (i) develop differentiated response systems according to disaster type, (ii) strengthen resilience capabilities in small districts, and (iii) incorporate conflict prevention and management mechanisms in disaster response protocols.