On Approaches to Labor Market Risk Analysis Based on Nonlinear Interindustry Balance Models

This paper proposes a new approach to analyzing the balance of employment forecasts in the labor market, based on mathematical models of the nonlinear input–output balance. The approach addresses the limitations of traditional econometric forecasting methods under modern conditions of structural economic shifts in Russian economy occurred after 2022. The models account for the substitution of production factors and describe the endogenous formation of prices and intermediate demand for primary resources in the economy, based on the resource allocation problem and the corresponding Young dual problem of equilibrium prices. Using this framework, the alignment of an exogenous employment forecast with the endogenous solvent demand for labor from industries is verified under given macroeconomic scenarios. The proposed approach has been tested on available Russian statistical data. A model with CES production functions was identified and verified using official symmetric input–output tables for 2017–2019. The testing results demonstrate the model’s ability to reproduce wage fund statistics and analyze sectoral imbalances. The application of the method to current official forecasts confirms the overall balance of the employment forecast while revealing potential risks of wage disparity across key economic complexes.