Towards Net-Zero Coastal Homes: Techno-Economic Optimization of a Hybrid Heat Pump, PV, and Battery Storage System in a Deeply Retrofitted Building in Poland

The decarbonization of the residential sector is a critical component of the European Green Deal, particularly in transition economies like Poland. This study proposes a comprehensive techno-economic optimization of a deeply retrofitted single-family house aiming for net-zero energy building (NZEB) status. The research specifically focuses on the Polish coastal climate zone, characterized by distinct humidity, wind, and temperature profiles compared to inland regions, which significantly influence the efficiency of air-to-water heat pumps (ASHP). Based on a real-world energy audit, the study simulates the synergy between a deep thermal envelope upgrade and a hybrid system comprising an ASHP, photovoltaics (PV), and battery energy storage (BES). This paper presents a detailed economic analysis of such hybrid systems under the new Polish ‘net-billing’ prosumer mechanism. The study evaluates the impact of electricity tariff structures (flat-rate G11 vs. time-of-use G12w) on the investment’s profitability. By calculating key performance indicators—including the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), net present value (NPV), and self-sufficiency ratio (SSR)—the research assesses various system configurations. The initial evaluation indicates that while deep retrofitting significantly reduces heating demand, integrating battery storage plays a critical role in enhancing economic returns under the net-billing framework. The analysis demonstrates that the optimized hybrid system (9.0 kWp PV + 10 kWh BESS) achieves an average annual self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) of 49.8% and reduces the non-renewable primary energy (EP) indicator to 0.0 kWh/(m2·year). Economically, the investment yields a positive NPV of €3194, an IRR of 5.25%, and a LCOE of €0.184/kWh, which is 34% lower than projected grid prices. Furthermore, switching to a time-of-use tariff (G12w) generates an additional 11% (€139) in annual savings. These quantitative findings provide actionable guidelines for policymakers and investors, confirming the financial viability and environmental benefit (annual reduction of 6.12 MgCO2) of NZEB standards in coastal areas.