Revealing spatio–temporal dynamics and mechanisms influencing the resilience of cultivated land systems in China

The production of cultivated land in China faces the risks of soil nutrient imbalance and functional instability. Measuring and analyzing the resilience of cultivated land systems (RCLS) is crucial for maintaining stable production and promoting green development in agricultural production. From the perspective of agricultural green transformation, this paper reveals the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the RCLS in China from 2008 to 2023 and uses a geographical and temporal weighted regression (GTWR) model to explore the factors influencing regional differences. The results are as follows: (1) The national RCLS increased from 0.1926 in 2008 to 0.5211 in 2023, with an average annual increase of 2.05%, thus indicating step-by-step growth. (2) National RCLS exhibited outward radiation from the ‘northwest–northeast’ dual-core high-resilience gathering area. Moreover, the differences were evident in the resilience space of RCLS in each region. (3) An analysis of the driving factors revealed that straw return, agricultural structure, farmer education level and a high standard farmland scale were the dominant factors affecting RCLS. In this context, a high standard farmland scale has a negative driving effect, whereas straw return, agricultural structure and farmer education level have positive driving effects. (4) The combined effect of the rotation fallow scale and grain yield per unit area had the strongest explanatory power with respect to the resilience of the cultivated land system. This paper provides a scientific basis for enhancing cultivated land sustainability and supports policymaking in the context of agricultural green transformation in China.