Hotspots of Cropland Abandonment in the Rural Eastern Cape: Disentangling Socio-Economic and Climate Drivers Among Farming Households in the Former Homelands of Transkei

Smallholder farming remains a critical livelihood source for rural communities in South Africa, particularly in the Eastern Cape Province. However, cropland abandonment has become an escalating concern, undermining food security, household incomes, and the long-term sustainability of agricultural systems. This study assessed the socio-economic and climate-related factors influencing cropland abandonment in the former homelands of Transkei. A mixed-methods approach was used, combining a quantitative survey, a qualitative focus group discussion, and a key informant interview. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, a double-hurdle model, and thematic analysis. The descriptive results revealed that the average respondent was 57 years, with a predominantly male majority (57.47%), a primary education (40.27%), and a mean average household size of 5.4. About 51.58% of household heads were married and 48.42% were single, with a mean household income of R63 155 (3680.26 USD). The econometric results from the first hurdle model indicated that education level, farming experience, rainfall variability, access to irrigation, and off-farm income significantly influenced the decision to abandon cropland. The second hurdle model demonstrated that the extent of cropland abandonment was shaped by labour availability, access to credit, rainfall patterns, cooperative membership, and farming experience. The study concluded that cropland abandonment in the former Transkei was influenced by different factors. Therefore, the study would recommend targeted policy interventions that strengthen human capital, improve access to agricultural support services, and promote youth participation and collective farming structures to revitalise smallholder agriculture and enhance rural food security.