Territorial Space Transformation and Sustainability Pathways in Ecologically Fragile Zones: Multi‐Scenario Simulation of Urban‐Agricultural‐Ecological Nexus in the Gansu‐Qinghai Contiguous Region of the Upper Yellow River

ABSTRACT The Gansu‐Qinghai Contiguous Region of the Upper Yellow River occupies an ecologically fragile transition zone between the Loess and Qinghai‐Tibet plateaus. Understanding the co‐evolution of urban‐agricultural‐ecological function space is critical for regional sustainability. Existing studies analyze spatial evolution patterns but lack systematic explanations of driving mechanisms, necessitating multi‐dimensional empirical analysis for Yellow River basin ecological protection and development. This study employs spatial econometric and FLUS models to analyze spatiotemporal characteristics, driving mechanisms, and multi‐scenario predictions using 2000–2020 land use data. Land use transition matrices quantify conversion relationships, while a multi‐dimensional framework incorporates topographic, climatic, locational, and socioeconomic factors. Artificial neural networks are embedded within the FLUS model to estimate land type suitability probabilities. Results show urban function space expanded 68.4%, agricultural function space decreased 3%, and ecological function space remained stable with frequent internal conversions during 2000–2020. Six conversion types were identified, with bidirectional agricultural‐ecological transitions most active in eastern human‐intensive areas. Topography constrains urban expansion, accessibility affects ecological‐agricultural conversion, and population density and GDP growth exhibit heterogeneous driving characteristics for different conversion types. Scenario simulations show that the economy‐priority scenario leads to substantial urban expansion but with significant ecological costs, while the ecological protection scenario effectively controls urban sprawl. The study elucidates the process differentiation mechanisms in ecologically fragile areas, provides empirical evidence for territorial management in the Yellow River Basin, and offers practical guidance for delineating urban growth boundaries, permanent basic farmland protection zones, and ecological restoration areas.