A Dynamic Flood Risk Assessment Model for Architectural Heritage from the Full-Life-Cycle Perspective: A Case Study of Beijing

Considering escalating global climate change, flood disaster risk assessment for architectural heritage must evolve from static models toward dynamic adaptive systems. This paper proposes a dynamic evaluation model based on the Full-Life-Cycle perspective, dividing disaster progression into three phases: pre-disaster, during-disaster, and post-disaster. This system constructs a dual-track indicator system encompassing Exposure and Vulnerability. By integrating the CRITIC objective weighting method with the G1 subjective ranking approach, the model enables dynamic weight adjustment according to disaster phase. A case study of 392 cultural heritage sites in Beijing reveals that during the disaster phase, 20 sites experienced a risk level increase in two or more tiers, with 13.7% directly entering high-risk status. This finding demonstrates the spatiotemporal evolution of flood risks. The weight for Road Network Density exhibited a substantial increase from 0.046 pre-disaster to 0.153 post-disaster, a 169.5% rise, underscoring its dynamic responsiveness. The findings demonstrate that the proposed model is effective in identifying high-risk heritage sites and dynamically capturing key targets experiencing rapid risk escalation within the disaster chain. These results provide quantitative evidence to support the implementation of phased targeted protection measures and emergency decision-making.