Development and Application of Bowtie and Analytical Hierarchy Process Decision Methodology for Risk Management: A Case Study of the Ghanaian Oil and Gas Industry

ABSTRACT Risk assessment continues to be a major issue confronting industry, considering the increasing dynamics and complexity of industrial operational activities. Although several risk assessment methodologies exist that guide how risk assessment should be carried out, research indicates a disparity between work as planned and work as done in the risk management space. Furthermore, there is an ongoing debate about whether industry should focus more intensively on a few critical risks, rather than diluting efforts across a wide spectrum. However, there are limited tools that exist to guide the selection of critical risks for greater focus. This research addresses these gaps by presenting a risk management methodology that integrates bowtie analysis (BTA) and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). The application of the AHP provides an effective tool for the selection of critical risks for greater focus, and bowtie analysis also guides how to attain greater focus on the selected critical risks. Through this methodology, unwanted events are firstly identified, and based on a defined materiality, the material unwanted events are selected. Subsequently, by applying the AHP and a defined criticality threshold, critical material unwanted events are selected. Such critical material unwanted events are then used in bowtie analysis. Finally, the proposed methodology was tested through the risk assessment of an oil waste treatment plant in Ghana to demonstrate its application. Results indicate that the proposed methodology is useful and applicable and offers opportunities to identify the critical risks for greater focus.