Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Stock Markets: A NARDL Analysis for Türkiye and Kazakhstan

This study examines the asymmetric responses of stock market indices in Türkiye and Kazakhstan to oil price shocks during the 2010–2025 period. Using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, the study decomposes the nonlinear effects of oil price fluctuations on financial markets. Empirical findings reveal that in Türkiye, a net oil importer, the stock market exhibits a dual-sensitivity: while exchange rate dynamics (2.34) remain the dominant driver, oil price increases (−0.12) exert a direct and statistically significant negative pressure. In contrast, Kazakhstan, a net oil exporter, shows a high vulnerability to oil price decreases (−1.05) at the 1% significance level, confirming a strong asymmetric structure (p = 0.0122). Furthermore, the error correction speed is significantly higher in Türkiye (28%) than in Kazakhstan (4%), indicating divergent market efficiency and recovery mechanisms. These results demonstrate that financial market reactions to external shocks differ fundamentally based on energy trade structures. The findings suggest that oil-importing countries must prioritize exchange rate stability, while oil-exporting nations must develop specific policy buffers against the persistent downside risks of global energy cycles.