Feature-Based Population Initialization for Evolutionary Optimization of Machine Learning Models in Short-Term Solar Power Forecasting

Nowadays, solar energy is becoming one of the most popular sources of renewable energy worldwide. Traditional fossil fuels cause pollution and climate change, while solar power offers a clean and sustainable alternative. However, effective planning requires accurate prediction of the amount of solar energy that can be produced. Prediction accuracy directly depends on two factors: the model’s hyperparameters and the feature set. In this study, we use boosting models, such as LightGBM, XGBoost, and CatBoost, to forecast solar power production. The prediction horizon is 60 min, which corresponds to short-term forecasting. Model tuning is performed using the NSGA-II multi-objective optimization algorithm. In this study, NSGA-II simultaneously tunes hyperparameters and a feature set of boosting models. We aim to enhance the performance of the NSGA-II algorithm in the early stages using the proposed method to generate the initial population. The initialization is based on an ensemble of filtering methods. The proposed approach promotes faster convergence in the early stages of the algorithm compared to the traditional initialization method. The results of numerical experiments are proven by the Wilcoxon test.