Landscape-scale reconciliation of ecological restoration and anthropogenic land use on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Navigating the trade-offs between ecological restoration and anthropogenic land-use is a defining challenge for fragile ecosystems like the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). To address this challenge, this study introduces an integrated spatial modeling framework that moves beyond single-objective planning to simultaneously balance multiple ecological and economic goals. By fusing process-based models (DTVGM, MUSLE, InVEST) with advanced algorithms (NSGA-III, PLUS), we identified optimal land use configurations under three CMIP6 climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), with highly consistent results across scenarios; therefore, SSP2-4.5 is presented as the representative case in the main analysis. Our results uncover significant synergies, projecting major enhancements in water retention, soil conservation, and carbon storage alongside vast spatial restructuring of landscapes—including extensive forest gains in the Yangtze River Source Region and large-scale grassland restoration in the west QTP. Critically, the study pinpoints regions of economic trade-off, such as the pastoral areas of western Sichuan, providing transparent guidance for targeted policy intervention. This work delivers a scalable tool for aligning China’s national restoration projects with global initiatives like the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration.