The Illusion of Finality: A Critical Analysis of Elite Bargaining and Institutional Fragility in South Sudan's Revitalised Peace Agreement

This working paper interrogates the persistent cycle of conflict and fragile peace in South Sudan, arguing that the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) represents a continuation of elite bargaining rather than a transformative settlement. Through a qualitative analysis of primary documentation, elite interviews, and local media reports from 2018–2021, the study finds that the agreement's implementation has been characterised by institutional mimicry, the militarisation of governance, and the exclusion of sub-national grievances. The paper demonstrates how these processes have reinforced a predatory political economy, undermining the establishment of legitimate authority and perpetuating violence at the community level. The discussion concludes that without addressing the foundational issues of resource distribution and political inclusion, South Sudan's peace remains fundamentally precarious.