Urban energy transition and low-carbon technological innovation: Quasi-natural experiment evidence from China

Promoting low-carbon technological innovation (LCTI) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has become a global consensus. Using panel data for 255 Chinese cities from 2009 to 2023, this study examines the impact of the New Energy Demonstration City Pilot Policy (NEDCPP) on urban LCTI through a difference-in-differences (DID) framework. The results show that the implementation of NEDCPP significantly promotes LCTI in pilot cities. Specifically, the policy increases the level of LCTI by approximately 23.6% on average. This finding remains robust after a series of robustness checks, including parallel trend tests, placebo tests, and propensity score matching-DID estimation. Mechanism analysis further indicates that the policy stimulates LCTI through three key channels: strengthening green financial support, promoting industrial structure transformation and upgrading, and intensifying environmental regulation. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the policy effect is more pronounced in cities with higher levels of marketization, less clean energy structures, and stronger public environmental awareness. These findings provide empirical evidence on how energy transition policies can stimulate low-carbon technological progress and offer important policy implications for accelerating energy transition and achieving China's “dual-carbon” goals.