The Fragility of the R-ARCSS: A Mixed-Methods Analysis of Local Perceptions and Conflict Data in South Sudan

This mixed-methods study critically examines the implementation and local reception of South Sudan's Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) from 2018 to 2023. It combines quantitative analysis of conflict event data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) with qualitative thematic analysis of 45 semi-structured interviews conducted with civil society leaders, community elders, and displaced persons in Juba, Bentiu, and Malakal. The quantitative results demonstrate a significant spatial and temporal variation in violence, with a decline in major battles but a persistent, high level of politically motivated, low-intensity conflict. The qualitative findings reveal a pervasive local narrative of elite capture, institutionalised exclusion, and a deficit of trust in transitional mechanisms. The integrated analysis argues that the technical implementation of security arrangements has failed to address the foundational political marketplace and logics of violence, thereby explaining the agreement's fragility. The study concludes that sustainable peace requires moving beyond elite bargains to foster inclusive political settlements and genuine community-level reconciliation.