Abstract: Dependence on energy imports remains a crucial challenge for Indonesia as a net oil importer facing increasing energy demand, exchange rate volatility, and global oil price fluctuations. This study aims to analyze the effect of exchange rates, Brent crude oil prices, and economic growth on energy imports in Indonesia. This study uses a multiple linear regression approach with annual time series data (1990–2023). The research data was obtained from the World Development Indicators (World Bank) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Based on the regression results, it was found that exchange rate depreciation did not reduce energy imports, due to the inelastic nature of energy demand and the strategic role of energy as a fundamental input in the production process. Similarly, the increase in world oil prices also correlates positively with the increase in energy imports in Indonesia. This is due to domestic fuel price controls, limited international price transmission, and limited domestic production and refining capacity. Furthermore, based on the results of this research, it was found that economic growth emerged as the main driver of energy imports, indicating that Indonesia's economic expansion during the research period was still energy intensive and highly dependent on fossil fuels. The results of this study show that exchange rate mechanisms and oil price fluctuations alone are not sufficient to reduce energy imports in Indonesia. These results emphasize the importance of implementing structural energy policies, which include improving energy efficiency, expanding domestic production and refining capacity, and accelerating diversification towards alternative energy sources. Such interventions are crucial in order to reduce dependence on imports, mitigate vulnerability to external shocks, and strengthen national energy security in a sustainable manner.
Septriani Septriani* (2025) studied this question.