Integrating climate change scenarios and land use projections to predict palm tree distributions in Guinea-Bissau, West Africa

Abstract Climate change is expected to significantly alter habitat suitability for plant species, potentially leading to range contractions and, in extreme cases, extinction. These impacts may be further intensified by concurrent changes in land cover and land use, whether directly or indirectly driven by climate change. Therefore, medium- and long-term projections of species distributions provide valuable tools for environmental planning and management in vulnerable regions. The Arecaceae family holds considerable ecological importance and represents a critical natural resource for rural populations in West Africa, where several species may be at risk. This study models the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of palm species in Guinea-Bissau, using climate and land cover predictors under two scenarios (SSP-245 and SSP-585), with 2070 as the projection horizon. Despite limited occurrence data for some species, increasing temperature emerged as the most influential climatic variable shaping habitat suitability among the modeled palm species. Projections indicate a contraction of suitable habitats for several species, particularly those with narrow ecological tolerances or restricted distributions, such as Hyphaene thebaica and Raphia sudanica. Additionally, species of high socioeconomic importance, including Elaeis guineensis , are projected to experience substantial reductions in habitat suitability, potentially affecting their availability and use by local communities. Overall, these findings highlight the vulnerability of palm species in Guinea-Bissau to future climate change and underscore the importance of integrating climate and land-use projections into conservation and resource management strategies.