Integrating financial and climate scenario analyses into forest restoration: a framework with NTFP trees

Productive forest restoration (PFR) offers a pathway to recover landscapes while generating income for local communities. Yet most restoration planning overlooks the potential of non-timber forest product (NTFP) species. We present an integrative modelling framework for NTFP-based PFR that combines a GIS-based Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for site selection, climate change scenario modelling, and financial assessments. The framework was applied to the Andean NTFP species Caesalpinia spinosa (Tara) in southern Ecuador, incorporating ecological, socioeconomic, and locational factors into the decision-making process. Three scenarios were evaluated: (i) current conditions, (ii) improved socioeconomic conditions, and (iii) climate change projections. Results show that while biophysical factors dominate site suitability, socioeconomic constraints—particularly household income and labour—are critical for viability. Under current conditions, 6.5% of the study area was marginally suitable, increasing to 15% when socioeconomic constraints were relaxed. Climate change reduced suitable land and expanded non-suitable areas, highlighting the importance of scenario-based planning. Finally, financial analyses revealed positive net returns across scenarios, even under pessimistic projections and discount rates up to 7%. By integrating ecological, socioeconomic, and financial dimensions, this framework advances modelling approaches for restoration planning and highlights the overlooked potential of NTFP species in climate-resilient restoration.