A Novel GIS-Based Multi-Criteria Framework for Climate-Induced Water Scarcity Assessment

Global climate change, driven by cumulative anthropogenic activities, has resulted in observable extremes, including floods caused by intense precipitation and droughts or wildfires triggered by heatwaves. Research indicates a high level of confidence regarding the future impacts of climate change on water resources, with the Mediterranean region identified as particularly vulnerable to severe drought risk. This study develops a comprehensive framework for mapping climate change-induced water scarcity risk by integrating climatic, geographical, socio-economic and infrastructural drivers. The Büyük Menderes Basin was selected as the study area due to its strategic location and the intensity of agricultural activities. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, combined with Geographical Information Systems and fuzzy membership methods, was applied to identify spatial variations in water scarcity risk projected for 2050. Three climate scenarios based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways were considered: SSP1-1.9, SSP3-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. Results indicate that water scarcity risk increases progressively from SSP1-1.9 to SSP5-8.5. While infrastructural drivers did not dominate the overall risk assessment, they exerted a substantial influence on basin-wide water scarcity, underscoring the importance of integrating infrastructural conditions into water risk models. This study presents a novel, adaptable framework that combines climatic, socio-economic and infrastructural parameters, offering a comprehensive approach for assessing water scarcity in river basins. The proposed approach provides a valuable tool for guiding water resource planning and policy-making under future climate scenarios.