Employment uncertainty and fertility decision-making: migrant-native disparities in Sweden and Norway

Abstract Despite the growing share of migrants in the European workforce, research on how employment uncertainty shapes their fertility intentions remains limited. This study examines how employment uncertainty—measured objectively (contract type) and subjectively (perceived employment uncertainty)—influences short-term fertility intentions in Sweden and Norway. A key contribution is the comparison between native-born individuals and migrants distinguished by Western and non-Western origins. Using data from the Generations and Gender Survey II (2020–2021), the differential effects for men and women are analysed. The results indicate that while permanent employment generally promotes fertility intentions for the native-born population, the mechanisms differ significantly for non-Western migrants. For native-born men, both contractual and perceived uncertainty are negatively associated with fertility intentions. In contrast, non-Western migrants—particularly men—are more likely to report positive fertility intentions under conditions of uncertainty, such as holding non-permanent contracts or anticipating job loss. This suggests that for marginalised groups, childbearing may be decoupled from employment security and conditions or serve as a strategy to reduce uncertainty.