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April 14, 2026Open Access

A Structural Mechanism for Regime Transitions in Complex Systems: The Role of Fluctuation Amplitude

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Authors

JPJosef Piskač

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Overview

This work demonstrates how fluctuation amplitude influences transitions in complex systems, suggesting a new framework for understanding dynamics.

Key Points

  • The aim is to unravel the dynamical conditions that facilitate transitions in complex systems through fluctuation amplitude analysis.
  • Introduced a data-driven framework applicable to various complex systems like finance and climatology.
  • Analyzed the relationship between fluctuation amplitude changes and transition probability using multiple amplitude estimators.
  • Conducted stability checks through bootstrap resampling and parameter variation, and employed permutation-based randomization to test the results.
  • Found a consistent pattern where transition probability increases with fluctuation amplitude change.
  • Demonstrated that fluctuation amplitude change does not predict individual events but defines regimes of increased transition likelihood.
  • Confirmed that structural reorganization in complex systems is linked to fluctuations, providing a new understanding of transition dynamics.

Cite This Study

Josef Piskač (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69ddd9f9e195c95cdefd7572https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19541818
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