Predictors of Water Point Sustainability and Water Quality in Gulu, Uganda

Understanding the predictors of nonpiped water source system water quality and operational sustainability as measured by functionality and length of breakdowns is essential to sustain functioning water systems, remediate nonfunctioning systems, and maintain water safety of nonpiped water sources in sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated the predictors of nonpiped water source system operational sustainability and water quality using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression on a cross-sectional data set of all 354 known, recently active nonpiped water sources in Gulu, Uganda collected in 2018. On sustainability, this study found that certain water source technology types, risk of contamination scores, and certain water source management practices are significant predictors of water source operational sustainability. This study failed to find significant evidence that water source management structure, most management practices, geographic relationships between water sources, and most water source technology types are significant predictors of water source operational sustainability in Gulu, Uganda. For water quality, we found that water sources that were farther from the town center (in less urbanized areas), water sources farther from low-lying marshland, and water sources that had undeveloped (rather than developed) land cover were less likely to suffer fecal contamination. This study failed to find evidence that water source management type, water source management practices, and risk of contamination scores are significant predictors of fecal contamination of water sources. Together, these findings suggest that the determinants of operational sustainability and fecal contamination of nonpiped water sources are nuanced, require local assessment, remain poorly understood, and merit future investigation.