Exit, Voice, and Loyalty in the German Democratic Republic, 1970–1989: A Contrastive Design with Directed Acyclic Graphs

Abstract The paper exemplifies a contrastive research design for a comprehensive comparison of related middle-range theories. Six adaptations of Hirschman’s exit, voice, loyalty (EVL) model for authoritarian states are formalized using directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). From the DAGs, a set of 112 pivotal observable implications is derived. These implications are evaluated using new data from the German Democratic Republic (GDR), covering the period from 1970 to 1989. The evaluation employs nonparametric linear kernel regression. Results indicate that none of the six EVL models can fully explain the EVL dynamics in the GDR. The paper discusses how the proposed research design complements X‑centered designs and structural equation models.