Estimating global invasion risk of Vespa affinis with variable environmental scenarios

Abstract Human activities are reshaping ecosystems worldwide, facilitating the spread of invasive insect species beyond their native ranges. The lesser banded hornet Vespa affinis Linnaeus (Vespidae:Vespa), a known predator of honeybees, poses risks to public health and apiculture outside its native range. However, whether suitable habitats for V. affinis overlap with human population hotspots and international ports are poorly understood. Here, we used an ensemble modeling approach to assess the probability of V. affinis establishment and invasion risks. Specifically, we considered global habitat suitability for this species under baseline (current) conditions (1970–2000) and in 2081–2100 (2090s) under the socioeconomic pathway (ssp585) scenario. Our models suggest that suitable areas for V. affinis will increase by over ∼21% from now (2.06 × 107 km2) to the 2090s (2.49 × 107 km2). High-risk international ports are mainly concentrated in Africa, Southeast Asia, the Caribbean, and central parts of the Americas. Our findings also suggest there is high likelihood for human–hornet interactions and public health concerns in South and Southeast Asia, West Africa, and northern South America. These findings provide key insights into the hornet’s potential distribution and risk areas supporting targeted monitoring efforts and the development of biosecurity strategies to mitigate its spread.