Midterms and the Iran War: Defining Power, Public Support, and the Post-Westphalian Transition

This paper argues that the trajectory of the U.S.–Iran war is constrained less by battlefieldcapability than by political time: elections, media-defined frames, and the durability of publicconsent. The central variable is defining power—the ability to fix the meaning of the war in afragmented information environment. The paper develops three linked claims. First, astructural conflict between the administration and established media institutions weakenscoordinated agenda-setting in wartime. Second, the reversal of diplomatic normalisation after7 October 2023 illustrates how quickly regional predictability can be undone when proxyarchitectures reintroduce high-intensity conflict. Third, the U.S. midterm cycle exerts agravitational pull towards short-term stabilisation over strategic completion, makingdefinitional power and public support decisive constraints on strategic resolve. Throughout,the paper separates factual claims from scenario-level inference and treats projections withcaution.