Spatiotemporal Resilience Assessment Method of Urban Rail Transit: An Improved Coupled Map Lattice Model Integrating Passenger Attrition and Transfer Behaviour

ABSTRACT Common environmental and operational interruptions can lead to station or line failures, which in turn trigger cascading failures in the urban rail transit network (URTN). However, most studies neglect the effects of passenger transfer and attrition behaviours on network resilience under cascading failures. As the primary service recipients of the URTN, passengers have a direct impact on network resilience. Thus, the omission of passenger attrition and transfer behaviour can lead to an overestimated impact of cascading failures. Therefore, this study proposes an improved coupled map lattice (CML) model that integrates passenger transfer and attrition behaviours, station risk resistance, and inter‐node coupling to capture the dynamic evolution of cascading failures. Then, a dual‐metric evaluation framework covering spatial and temporal characteristics is used to assess spatiotemporal resilience. A case study of the Tianjin URTN reveals that different attack strategies and disturbance intensities significantly influence resilience, particularly during morning peak hours, and a critical disturbance threshold of R = 2.2 can trigger large‐scale failure. Additionally, the resilience of the URTN is more significantly influenced by stations with higher connectivity than with higher passenger volume. The findings can provide crucial guidance for emergency planning, thus improving the stability of the URTN.