Since the Arab Spring, the traditional state system in the Middle East has significantly weakened, leading to a fragmentation of power across the region. This paper explores how centralized nation-states, established during the colonial and post-colonial periods, have gradually collapsed in countries such as Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. It illustrates the growing role of non-state actors (NSAs), namely religious militias, armed groups, and foreign-backed organizations, which have filled the vacuum left by weakened central governments. The paper shows how historical divisions, rooted in ethnic, tribal, and sectarian identities, combined with authoritarianism, foreign interference, and economic dependency on oil revenues, have contributed to this destabilization. Additionally, the paper discusses Iran's strategic role in supporting Shia militias across the region, thereby influencing regional politics and security. Ultimately, the research suggests that traditional models of centralized governance no longer align with the evolving realities of the Middle East. Instead, a new, decentralized framework is emerging in which states increasingly share power with multiple local and transnational actors.
Rached et al. (2026) studied this question.