Present‐Day Kinematics and Seismic Hazards in Turkey: Insights From a TVR‐Optimized Block Model and High‐Resolution GNSS Strain Rates

Abstract Turkey, at the intersection of Eurasian, Arabian, and African plates, is characterized by spatially heterogeneous fault behavior and experiences frequent destructive earthquakes. Here, we systematically investigate present‐day kinematics and seismic hazards in Turkey using dense Global Navigation Satellite System observations. We construct an objective block model using total variation regularization after building an initial model integrating multi‐source data sets. Our model quantifies slip partitioning in the active fault systems (e.g., 6.3 vs. 3.1 mm/yr between main and secondary branches of the East Anatolian fault zone) and determines slip rates along geodetically identified tectonic boundaries (e.g., 4.0 ± 0.4 mm/yr contraction rate on the Tercan fault). Concurrently, we calculate continuous strain‐rate field that reveals the concentrated (e.g., North Anatolian fault zone NAFZ) and distributed strain (e.g., northeastern Turkey) across Turkey, as well as intra‐plate tectonic transforms (e.g., notable compression along the Eldivan‐Elmadağ Pinched Crustal Wedge EPCW). The contraction along the EPCW appears linked to localized stress rotation and large bending of the NAFZ under long‐term Anatolian extrusion. Additionally, we find no geodetic evidence supporting two previously proposed intraplate escape pathways: a strike‐slip system between the eastern Anatolian shear zone, Antalya‐Kekova fault zone, and Pliny‐Strabo shear zone (PSSZ), or a linkage between the Fethiye‐Burdur fault zone and PSSZ. Furthermore, using fault slip‐rates and block internal strain‐rates, we calculate on‐fault and off‐fault moment accumulation rates across Turkey. We find close agreement between cumulative geodetic and seismic moments, with sustained lower seismic rates relative to accumulation rates suggesting elevated potential for major earthquakes.