Net primary productivity (NPP) is a critical indicator of carbon sequestration and biomass accumulation in terrestrial ecosystems, directly reflecting ecosystem carbon sink capacity. Existing NPP studies have primarily emphasized climate-driven interannual variability. Spatially explicit analyses that jointly quantify multi-factor driving mechanisms, thresholds, and land-use transition risks remain limited. Here, we develop an integrated multi-method analytical workflow (DRIBS) that integrates Distributional Response, Informative Boundary constraints, and Spatial Interpretability Optimization, and apply it to the Jiziwan region in the Yellow River Basin, one of China’s major ecological restoration hotspot regions. From 2000 to 2020, the annual increasing rate of NPP was 5.80 gC·m⁻²·yr⁻¹, and 78% of the area showed a significant increasing trend. Among them, grasslands and croplands in the eastern and western parts exhibited strong fluctuations and low long-term stability. Evapotranspiration (ET) and fractional vegetation cover (FVC) were the dominant drivers of NPP spatial heterogeneity, and precipitation around ~220 mm marked a critical water-stress threshold. Population density and nighttime lights showed a non-linear “ecological adaptation window”, implying both disturbance and management potential. Land-use transitions exhibited divergent risk signatures: grassland/cropland-to-forest transitions produced stable enhancement (priority restoration zones), whereas cropland/unused-to-urban transitions were associated with degradation risk (urgent management). Overall, DRIBS provides an interpretable “change-mechanism-threshold-risk” assessment to support carbon-sink regulation and restoration prioritization in arid and semi-arid regions.
Wang et al. (2026) studied this question.