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April 18, 2026Economic Modelling0 citationsOpen Access

Age and Parity Birth Trends in Australia: Low Fertility Implications

Age- and Parity-Specific Birth Trends in Australia: Is Low Fertility Inevitable?

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Authors

SSSarah SinclairABAlicia BUBBJBJonathan Boymal

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Overview

Analysis of birth trends reveals family policy mainly affects birth timing in Australia, suggesting adaptations are needed.

Key Points

  • The study aims to explore the impact of public policy on birth trends in Australia amidst low fertility levels.
  • Analyzed population-wide data from the Victorian Perinatal Data Collection covering over two million births.
  • Constructed 41 monthly birth-rate series by maternal age and parity from 1983 to 2020.
  • Employed ARIMA modelling and structural break tests to identify turning points in birth rates.
  • Used interrupted time-series methods and local regression diagnostics to evaluate cohort-specific effects.
  • Identified robust structural breaks only for second births around 2005 and 2015.
  • Observed short-lived increases in second births aligning with the introduction and withdrawal of the Baby Bonus.
  • Found little correlation between policy interventions and birth rates in other age-parity cohorts.

Cite This Study

Sinclair et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69e31f1a40886becb653e986https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107616
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