A Multi-Scalar Causal Approach across Space and Time: An Application to the COVID-19 Pandemic in São Paulo State, Brazil

We develop and apply a quasi-experimental framework that adopts a causal inference perspective to examine spatial and temporal patterns of crime across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Using granular spatiotemporal police-recorded crime data from São Paulo state, Brazil, in 2016–2021, we employ difference-in-differences and event study methods to estimate the impacts of the COVID-19 mobility restrictions on crimes and crime hotspots and the heterogeneity in the impacts across space and time in an integrated way. The mobility restrictions temporarily decreased property crimes, not homicide, but increased crime hotspots and altered hourly temporal patterns of property crimes potentially in a persistent way. Patterns were distinct at the municipality and census block levels. Unique patterns were found in urban slums (favelas) and for domestic violence. Our framework effectively uncovered novel evidence regarding spatial and temporal responses to the COVID-19 pandemic for different types of crime in the Global South.