Fragile Stability: The Impact of Geopolitical Interests and Environmental Security on Burkina Faso's Political Landscape

This paper examines how environmental degradation, geopolitical competition, and governance failure intersect to shape political instability in Burkina Faso. Once considered a relatively stable democracy in West Africa, Burkina Faso has undergone two coups since 2022 amid mounting social and environmental crises. Using the Modelling Dense Urban Networks (MDUN) analytical tool, this study identifies the sociocultural, economic, and political dimensions of vulnerability that preceded these events. MDUN’s multidimensional analysis demonstrates how public sentiment—particularly declining confidence in government, growing xenophobia, and demands for national sovereignty—crossed critical thresholds months before the second coup. These dynamics were shaped by worsening environmental stressors, including land degradation, resource competition, and declining agricultural productivity.The analysis situates Burkina Faso’s experience within a broader theoretical framework linking environmental security and political ecology. It underscores how global and local forces converge in multi-scalar ways—foreign mining interests, regional insurgencies, and global rivalries between France, Russia, and China—all of which influence domestic legitimacy and governance. Environmental scarcity and political marginalization reinforce one another, eroding state capacity and fuelling public discontent.Findings suggest that societal vulnerability in Burkina Faso is best understood as a dialectical process: environmental stress undermines governance, weak governance deepens vulnerability, and both are shaped by internal and external actors seeking strategic advantage. Addressing instability in the Sahel requires more than counterterrorism or aid. It requires integrated approaches that strengthen environmental management, equitable access to resources, and political legitimacy at multiple scales. By combining environmental security theory with a structured vulnerability assessment, this study offers a framework for anticipating and interpreting sociopolitical instability in environmentally stressed regions.