Fisheries are vital to Somalia's economy, nutrition, and livelihoods, yet their sustainability is increasingly threatened by climate variability. This study investigates the impact of five key climate variables, rainfall, air temperature, CO 2 emissions, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed, on fish production in Somalia using annual time-series data from 1975 to 2023, Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) models to estimate short- and long-run relationships. The findings reveal that rainfall, CO 2 emissions, and SST significantly reduce fish production in both the short and long run, while wind speed has a consistently positive effect. Air temperature is statistically insignificant. These findings suggest that climate variability is a critical determinant of marine productivity in Somalia. Policy actions should prioritize climate-resilient fisheries management, investment in coastal infrastructure, and monitoring systems that track changes in sea temperature and wind regimes. Strengthening institutional capacity and regional cooperation on blue economy adaptation is essential for safeguarding livelihoods and food security in Somalia's fragile coastal zones. • This study investigates the long-run and short-run effects of climate change on fish production in Somalia from 1975 to 2023. • Sea surface temperature, rainfall variability, and CO 2 emissions negatively impact marine productivity. • Wind speed has a significant positive effect through upwelling-induced nutrient supply. • ARDL and CCR models confirm a stable long-run cointegrated relationship. • The results inform climate-resilient fisheries policies in fragile coastal economies.
Ibey et al. (2026) studied this question.