Poland's Strategic Behavior as a Scale Mismatch Problem: A Structural Interpretation of Interdependence and Confrontation

Polish geopolitical behavior is commonly interpreted through external pressures, historical trauma, or ideological positioning. This paper argues that such explanations fail because they operate at an inappropriate analytical scale. Rather than a sequence of contingent events, Polish strategy can be understood as a stable structural pattern shaped by constraints of interdependence. Using a framework of scale-dependent causality, the paper shows that the tension between sovereignty and integration produces threshold effects that systematically favor confrontation over cooperation. The recurring pattern is not accidental but emerges from a mismatch between historical narratives and system-level dynamics of reciprocal commitments. The framework provides a structurally consistent interpretation and formulates conditions under which it can be falsified.