Neosustainable growth and global value chains in West Africa: a dual-frontier framework

This paper revisits sustainable development in West Africa through a dual-frontier framework that integrates international trade and intergenerational participation in global value chains (GVCs). Trade between West Africa and the rest of the world is conceptualized as the international production frontier (IPF), while intergenerational participation in GVCs defines the intergenerational production frontier (iPPF). Their synthesis yields the multidimensional technological frontier (MTF), where volatility is reinterpreted as an endogenous signal of frontier misalignment rather than an exogenous shock. Elasticities of participation are central to this framework: ei measures responsiveness to shifts in the IPF, and ei′ captures intergenerational transmission within the iPPF. Using panel cointegration and dynamic estimators (FMOLS, DOLS, PMG, CCE, System GMM) on eight West African economies (1999–2018), the analysis demonstrates that human capital is the binding constraint for GVC participation, while technology adoption remains insignificant in the absence of local innovation systems. Institutions and openness contribute positively but cannot substitute for skills and absorptive capacity. The sustainability balance equation reveals that West Africa currently exports volatility and ecological debt, producing a negative balance compared to East Asia's stabilizing convergence and Latin America's mixed outcomes. Sustainable development requires convergence toward the Se segment, where both international and intergenerational elasticities exceed unity, stabilizing the MTF and allowing volatility to be absorbed rather than amplified. Industrialization and downstream upgrading thus emerge as sustainability imperatives, enabling economies to capture greater value, diversify exports, and reduce vulnerability to commodity cycles. By reframing volatility as a diagnostic tool of frontier misalignment, the dual frontier model underscores that neosustainable growth is achievable when human capital, innovation ecosystems, and institutional reforms converge to align international and intergenerational frontiers.