Unveiling Livelihood Vulnerability and Consumption Declines in U.S. Counties During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Multilevel Analysis

COVID-19 was a prolonged public-health shock that disrupted mobility, access to services, and household spending. Although the official U.S. poverty rate declined to 11.1%, the Supplemental Poverty Measure rose to 12.9%, suggesting that material hardship persisted unevenly across places. This study asks whether pre-existing livelihood vulnerability and local epidemic burden translated into geographically concentrated consumption losses during 2020–2022. Because sustained consumption loss can erode households’ health-related spending, tracking where spending declines concentrate helps connect local social and environmental conditions to how communities withstand a health crisis. We analyze consumer expenditure, unlike prior research relying on aggregate retail sales, to capture fine-grained economic strains as a proxy for shock-absorption capacity. A Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) was calculated for each U.S. county using 16 socio-economic variables, and counties were classified as high- or low-risk. A multilevel model then examined how socio-economic and COVID-19 factors at county and census tract levels shaped consumption changes. Higher-risk communities experienced greater consumption reductions. At the census tract level, the non-White ratio, vacancy rate, built year, per capita income, education level, and housing value were significant. At the county level, COVID-19 cases and deaths, crowding, public transportation use, and vehicle availability mattered most. These findings support place-targeted strategies that combine public-health response with socio-environmental interventions to reduce disparities rooted in pre-existing vulnerability.