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April 26, 2026SHILAP Revista de lepidopterologíaOpen Access

Clinical predictive modeling for post-ERCP cholangitis in biliary stricture patients

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Authors

BDBensong DuanWYWeixin YeYSYuping Shi

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Overview

Randomized trial predicts post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography cholangitis in biliary stricture patients, suggesting a nomogram for risk reduction.

Key Points

  • This study aims to predict the occurrence of post-ERCP cholangitis in patients with biliary stricture using clinical data.
  • Collected data from 1,606 patients undergoing ERCP over 10 years, with 1,281 randomly assigned to training or validation groups.
  • LASSO logistic regression was employed to identify risk factors and create a predictive nomogram.
  • The nomogram's performance was assessed using ROC curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis.
  • Identified key risk factors for post-ERCP cholangitis include age, albumin levels, diabetes, and others.
  • The nomogram yielded a high net benefit in decision curve analysis, indicating effective prediction.
  • Strong agreement was demonstrated between expected and observed outcomes in the calibration curve.

Cite This Study

Duan et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69edaafc4a46254e215b33a4https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2026.1738706
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Also Consider

Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context:

  1. 1Development and validation of a predictive model for post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography cholangitis: A risk factors based nomogram2026
  2. 2Predictive factors and nomogram for post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis2026
  3. 3Development and validation of a novel risk score for predicting post-ERCP pancreatitis in patients with choledocholithiasis: a retrospective study2026
  4. 4Development and validation of a practical clinical risk prediction model for post‐endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis2024 · 3 citations
  5. 5Prediction for post-ERCP pancreatitis in non-elderly patients with common bile duct stones: a cross-sectional study at a major Chinese tertiary hospital (2015–2023)2024 · 1 citations