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April 26, 2026Energy Reports0 citationsOpen Access

Spatio-temporal dynamics and heterogeneous drivers of rural energy poverty in China: Evidence from ESTDA and geographically weighted regression analysis

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ZXZhuoling XieRDRui Ding

Key Points

  • This study aims to understand the evolution and drivers of rural energy poverty in China using comprehensive data analysis.
  • Analyzed balanced panel data from 31 Chinese provinces between 2011 and 2021.
  • Combined spatio-temporal analysis with spatial econometric models.
  • Investigated interactive effects of key drivers on rural energy poverty.
  • Rural energy poverty decreased from 0.517 to 0.403 over the study period.
  • A persistent 'lower in the east, higher in the west' spatial pattern was observed.
  • Rural electricity consumption and disposable income were significant drivers with spatial heterogeneity.

Abstract

Rural energy poverty poses a significant challenge to China's sustainable development, yet existing research lacks integrated analytical frameworks to systematically explore its evolution and explanatory patterns. This study analyzes balanced panel data from 31 Chinese provinces between 2011 and 2021 using an integrated framework combining spatio-temporal analysis with spatial econometric models. The findings reveal that rural energy poverty decreased from 0.517 to 0.403, exhibiting a persistent "lower in the east, higher in the west" spatial pattern with increasing spatial clustering; key drivers—including rural electricity consumption, rural disposable income, per capita sulfur dioxide emissions, and agricultural plastic film usage—show significant spatial heterogeneity in their effects, with the interaction between agricultural plastic film usage and rural disposable income demonstrating the strongest explanatory power. This study advances methodological innovation by integrating spatio-temporal and spatial econometric approaches, and provides scientific evidence for designing spatially differentiated policies to accelerate rural clean energy transition and support China's rural revitalization strategy. • REP shows a declining trend, but spatial disparities persist. • REP demonstrates a relatively stable spatial distribution pattern. • REP factors and interactive effects are investigated.

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Cite This Study

Xie et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69edab814a46254e215b3755https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2026.109295
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