ABSTRACT Invasive species can fundamentally alter their introduced habitats by changing natural processes and harming native species crucial to functional ecosystems and human needs. Although the number of potential invasive species is large, the suitability of novel locations to support population establishment is limited by both physical and environmental conditions. Effective management to prevent, contain, and eradicate invasive species now and in the future can be informed by place‐based vulnerability assessments. We aim to better understand how environmental fluctuations affect the habitat suitability for two genera of invasive aquatic plants. These are the macrophytes Ludwigia spp. in the Willamette River, Oregon, USA, and the riparian species Reynoutria spp., in the coastal watersheds of Washington, USA. To understand the effects of environmental variability on biological invasions of the two genera in their respective introduced habitats, we use a six‐algorithm species distribution model ensemble with five general circulation models for two scenarios of societal development to project habitat suitability. Our models project that habitat suitability for Ludwigia and Reynoutria could decrease by the end of the 21st century along river mainstems. Results for Ludwigia show both range expansion and contraction in the tributaries of the Willamette River under differing projected temperature and precipitation scenarios. In contrast, the headwaters of the Washington Coastal systems become increasingly suitable for Reynoutria under modeled futures. Early detection and rapid response techniques may help manage these already established genera owing to the potential for novel expansion into headwater systems if temperature and precipitation shifts occur.
Smoot et al. (2026) studied this question.