Malaria transmission in Uganda remains highly heterogeneous, with consecutive, sporadic and oscillating hot spots in eastern and north eastern regions and sustained declines in parts of the southwest. National forecasts indicate continued high incidence with a modestly increasing baseline and sharply defined seasonal peaks. These findings support intensified, geographically targeted control in high burden districts, sustained investment in areas with declining trends, and the use of routine forecasting and temporal decomposition to guide adaptive planning toward national malaria control targets for 2030.
Paasi et al. (2026) studied this question.