Basin-based evaluation of the water–energy–climate nexus in Türkiye: Climate scenarios-based ANFIS and GIS assessment

The study region comprises Türkiye’s 25 river basins, where interactions between water resources, energy production, and climate variability are critical for long-term decision making in sustainable resource management. The study focuses on projecting freshwater consumption for electricity generation in 78 hydropower and 70 fossil-fueled power plants for the period 2023–2053 using an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Multi-model climate projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were incorporated to quantify future hydrological pressures and spatial heterogeneity. Basin-based indicators were calculated and spatially analyzed using GIS to quantify consumption-to-potential ratios and identify hydrological stress patterns. GIS-based analyses reveal substantial basin-level disparities in consumption-to-potential ratios across Türkiye’s river basins, with some basins (e.g., Kızılırmak, Fırat–Dicle, Gediz, Ceyhan, Kuzey Ege) exhibiting higher relative demands, while others (e.g., Doğu Karadeniz, Aras) remain comparatively low under different climate scenarios. Although absolute values differ across climate projections, the relative vulnerability ranking remains generally consistent, indicating stability in basin-level stress patterns under climate variability. The findings highlight the importance of basin-level planning and technological transitions that reduce freshwater dependency in the energy sector, thereby supporting climate-resilient and sustainable resource management. • Basin-level nexus approach links climate change to power-sector water demand. • ANFIS and climate scenarios forecast rising water consumption of electricity to 2053. • BBR-GIS assessment reveals high-risk river basins with water-stress vulnerability. • Hydropower drives basin-level water consumption and exacerbates climate impacts. • Findings guide cleaner basin-level planning for long-term resource security.