Analysis and simulation for a two-sex transmission model of HPV infection in Xinjiang of China

This study develops a two-sex deterministic compartmental model to investigate the transmission dynamics of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) and the subsequent progression to cervical cancer within a heterosexual population. The model stratifies the population by gender, tracking females through susceptible, HPV-infected, precancerous lesion, and cervical cancer states, while males are categorized as susceptible or infected. The mathematical analysis provides the expression of the basic reproduction number R 0 , and obtain that when R 0 ≤ 1, the disease is eventually extinct, while when R 0 > 1, the disease is continuously prevalent. Calibrated with epidemiological data from Xinjiang, China , over the period 2009 to 2019, the model estimates a basic reproduction number of R 0 = 1.5023, confirming the endemic nature of HPV. Sensitivity analysis identifies the male-to-female transmission rate ( β mf ) and the female HPV clearance rate ( γ 1 f ) as the most influential parameters. Intervention simulations reveal that while single-parameter strategies are insufficient, a combined approach-reducing male-to-female transmission by 50%, enhancing male clearance by 30%, and modulating precancerous progression parameters can lead to the elimination of cervical cancer by 2074. Our results demonstrate that sustainable control requires a dual-gender strategy, integrating behavioral prevention to reduce transmission with clinical screening and treatment to block cancer development.