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April 29, 2026International Finance0 citations

Political Ideology, Exchange Rate and State History

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TNTu Nhu Nguyen

Key Points

  • The research examines how political ideology affects exchange rates with a focus on ideological distance between investors and governments.
  • Utilized investor-level ideology measures combined with foreign-party ideology from electoral manifestos.
  • Analyzed data from 23 nations between 2000 to 2018.
  • Investigated the effect of ideological distance on currency values against the U.S. dollar.
  • Increase in ideological distance leads to a 2% appreciation of domestic currency against the U.S. dollar.
  • Findings suggest a causal relationship between political ideology changes and exchange rates.
  • Identified mechanisms related to institutional quality and state-history legacies.

Abstract

ABSTRACT Through the variation of exploitation in ideological distance between U.S. investors and foreign governments and the combination of investor‐level ideology measures proposed by Kempf et al. with foreign‐party ideology extracted from electoral manifesto data from 2000 to 2018 of 23 different nations, the study explores how changes in political ideology impact domestic currency values relative to the U.S. dollar. The findings show that an increase in ideological distance following elections is associated with a statistically significant 2% appreciation of the domestic currency against the U.S. dollar, which can be interpreted as causal. The potential mechanism operates through country origin and state‐history legacies, which capture differences in institutional quality.

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Cite This Study

Tu Nhu Nguyen (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69f1547f879cb923c49449f2https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70035
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