In order to objectively understand and evaluate the vegetation evolution characteristics of Ejina Oasis after the ecological water diversion of Heihe River, based on the NDVI data set from 2000 to 2020, spatiotemporal evolution of vegetation coverage ( FVC ) in the study area were analyzed by trend analysis, Sen + MK, Hrust index and barycenter migration model. Using the optimal parameter geographic detector, this study investigated the spatial differentiation characteristics and driving forces of FVC. The results revealed the following (1) The multi-year average FVC in the study area increased at an average annual rate of 0.35%, with the most pronounced rise occurring in the Banbul River area. (2) The FVC trend change during the study period was mainly significantly improved, with an area ratio of 87.78 %. Compared with the past, the vegetation in the future will change from improvement to degradation, accounting for 44.94 %, concentrated in desert, Gobi and other areas with weak contact with surface water. (3) Initially situated at the confluence of the upper East River and the Andu River area, the FVC gravity center in the study area has shifted northeastward, covering a total distance of 4.14 km over 21 years. (4) T Driving force detection was conducted for typical years at 5-year intervals. Regarding single factors, land use, GDP, human activity intensity, and soil type emerged as key drivers of FVC spatial differentiation, with the q-value for distance to river showing the largest increase. In terms of interactions, the GDP∩land use pair demonstrated the strongest effect. The research results can provide ideas for exploring the vegetation evolution mechanism in the core oasis area of Ejina.
Li et al. (2026) studied this question.