China has become a major services trader among Global South economies, yet its service export performance in OECD markets remains uneven across sectors. This study examines the determinants of China’s bilateral service exports to OECD partners in travel, transport, and other commercial services during 2005–2021. Using bilateral trade and macroeconomic data, the paper estimates an augmented gravity model with Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood and robustness checks. The results show clear heterogeneity across sectors. China’s economic size and that of its OECD partners are positively associated with service exports, while the effects of income differences vary by subsector. Geographical distance remains a significant constraint, especially for travel and other commercial services. ICT connectivity and exchange-rate movements are also linked to export performance, although some policy-related variables are not fully stable across specifications. Overall, the study provides disaggregated evidence on the determinants of China’s service exports to OECD markets and suggests that improvements in service capabilities, digital infrastructure, transport connectivity, and regulatory compatibility may support export performance. The findings should be interpreted in light of the OECD-focused sample, data ending in 2021, and measurement limits for some sector-specific indicators.
Dong et al. (2026) studied this question.