Rumination as a Confirmation Loop: A Mechanistic Account and the Role of Retrospective ERC in Memory-Based Pattern Modification

This paper is part of the Flujo Conducido (FC) research program, which proposes a framework for identifying behavioral states and modifying memory-based automatic patterns. While previous works establish the structural model and its underlying mechanisms, this paper applies the framework to a specific and widely studied phenomenon: rumination. Rumination has been consistently described as a maintaining factor in psychological distress. However, it is typically framed as a cognitive failure or a regulatory deficit. This paper proposes a different interpretation: rumination is not a system failure, but a signal, information that something remains unresolved in memory. The paper identifies three core mechanisms that sustain the ruminative loop: active emotional reactivation, confirmation bias as a generator of questions, and the shift from what is toward what could be. Based on this, a taxonomy of three orientations is proposed, allowing individuals to identify what type of information rumination is providing in each case. On this basis, retrospective ERC (Stimulus–Reaction–Consequence) is introduced as an operational tool to intervene in rumination without activating resistance from confirmation bias. A pilot study is also proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of this approach. This work contributes a mechanistic explanation of rumination and a practical, autonomous intervention tool, bridging theoretical understanding with real-world application.