Abstract This article studies how expected inflation risk affects asset prices. We propose an ex‐ante, tradable proxy for this risk, derived from the term spread of gold futures prices. Using cross‐sectional and time series asset pricing tests, we show how an increase in expected inflation risk lowers contemporaneous prices and raises equity returns. We find that our proxy has a positive impact on firms that have more pricing power.
Létourneau et al. (2026) studied this question.