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May 7, 2026Ecology and Evolution0 citationsOpen Access

Spatial Distribution of Topmouth Gudgeonis Pseudorasbora parva Under Climate Change by Ensemble Models

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HLHui LiWSWenqian SunWXWen Xiong

Key Points

  • This research aimed to evaluate the invasion risk of Pseudorasbora parva using ensemble species distribution models.
  • Utilized ensemble species distribution models combining six individual algorithms to predict distribution.
  • Collected global occurrence data from online biodiversity platforms.
  • Analyzed bioclimatic variables from WorldClim and ENVIREM.
  • Ensemble model achieved high accuracy with an AUC of 0.993.
  • Maximum temperature of the coldest month and isothermality significantly influenced distribution of Pseudorasbora parva.
  • Current invasion areas are concentrated between latitudes 22°–55° N.
  • Future projections suggest overall range expansion of Pseudorasbora parva.

Abstract

ABSTRACT Climate change may exacerbate biological invasion by expanding the distribution of invasive species. Pseudorasbora parva (Temminck (2) The two bioclimatic factors exerting the most significant influence on P. parva distribution were the maximum temperature of the coldest month and isothermality, contributing 51.362% and 18.279% respectively; (3) The distribution of P. parva in the current period, as generated by the ensemble model, revealed that the primary invasion areas are concentrated at latitude 22°–55° N; (4) Future projections under various climate scenarios indicated an overall range expansion, with high‐latitude or high‐altitude regions becoming increasingly favorable. These findings suggest that the future global expansion trend of P. parva should not be ignored and effective management policies for its invasion should be provided.

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Cite This Study

Li et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69fbe2f2164b5133a91a24c6https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.73612
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