Mountain hut managers as observers of overtourism in natural areas: Perceived tourism carrying capacity in the Italian Alps

The growing interest in outdoor recreation activities has intensified tourism impacts in natural areas, posing new challenges to sustainable tourism management. Hut managers, due to their daily interaction with both visitors and the natural environment, represent privileged observers for understanding the thresholds of mountain tourism carrying capacity. The objective of this study is to explore how hut managers perceive the pressures of increasing tourism demand on the mountain ecosystem. Italian hut managers participated in a survey designed to gather data on tourism demand and supply, perceived impacts, and the effects of climate change. Structural equation modelling was used to analyse the relationships between pressures and impacts. Warning signs of capacity being exceeded, such as visitor congestion, ecological degradation, and increased operational challenges, were identified. The increasing pressures are primarily driven by evolving patterns of tourism demand, while environmental impacts have been identified as the central reason behind the decline in tourism acceptance. Climate change has emerged as a significant exogenous driver influencing the sustainability of mountain tourism. Moving beyond traditional approaches, this research analysed perceived limits in a systematic way rather than measuring carrying capacity strictly in numerical terms. By integrating managers’ experiences into the carrying capacity framework, this research supports more responsive policymaking and destination planning in mountain environments facing intensifying pressures. The findings highlight the need for management approaches that focus on demand regulation, adaptive capacity assessment, and climate resilience, reinforcing the value of stakeholder engagement in carrying capacity assessments. • Mountain hut managers report early signs of overtourism in natural areas. • Shifts in visitor profiles and behaviours emerge as the primary driver. • Ecological impact is the main factor influencing tourism acceptance. • Climate change intensifies density perceptions and reduces carrying capacity.